Canadian Climate Institute's early analysis finds emissions are headed in the wrong direction, largely driven by an uptick in gas for heating and electricity

OTTAWA, ON, Oct. 8, 2026 /CNW/ -- Canada's emissions increased in 2025, according to the latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) from 440 Megatonnes, a project of the Canadian Climate Institute. The independent analysis estimates that Canada emitted around 691 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2025—an increase of about one per cent, or six megatonnes, compared to 2024.

The country remains far from achieving its climate targets. Five years out from Canada's 2030 target to reduce emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels, emissions have fallen just 9.5 per cent.

The Climate Institute's analysis shows that in 2025, the increase in emissions came largely from higher natural gas use in buildings (emissions up 6 per cent) and electricity (up 5 per cent), reversing reductions in both sectors the year before. Other sectors saw little or no progress, including oil and gas, which remained Canada's largest-emitting sector but had roughly flat emissions.

The most straightforward way to bring down emissions and get back on track to net zero is clean electrification—decarbonizing the grid and electrifying buildings, transport, and industry. But to get there, Canada must break the trend of the past 20 years.

Over that time period, electricity use has shrunk as a share of the energy used in Canada. And while the country's grid is relatively clean, it has been getting dirtier recently: since 2020, the share of the grid that is non-emitting has fallen from 84 to 80 per cent. That's even after factoring in growth in hydro, wind, and solar generation.

Course correction will require stronger action, including following through on the government's recent commitment to double electricity generation capacity by 2050, while also doubling electrification and energy efficiency. Additional measures, such as achieving the equivalent of a 75 per cent electric vehicle adoption rate by 2035 will help steer Canada back towards net zero.

This latest emissions estimate comes on the heels of a Canadian summer that saw wildfires ravage communities, intense rains flood thousands of homes, and storms cause over a billion dollars in damage in the Prairies. Canada has an opportunity to change its climate story from one of stalled progress and rising emissions to an economy that's harnessing its clean energy advantage.

QUOTES

"The increase in Canada's 2025 emissions is yet another signal that the country must accelerate action to meet the Carney government's own commitments. That can be achieved by doubling electricity generation capacity, doubling electrification, and doubling energy efficiency. This isn't just about hitting emissions targets—it's about making life more affordable; it's about transforming our economy to be more competitive in the global energy transition, and it's about limiting the extreme weather that's a risk to Canadian lives and livelihoods."
— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

"Canada remains off track to meet its climate goals, but the solution is no mystery: clean electrification is the linchpin of climate progress. To correct its course, the country must add more non-emitting power to the electricity grid, support the uptake of electrified technologies, and use electricity more efficiently. The most straightforward path to reducing emissions is electrifying our economy."
— Ross Linden-Fraser, Acting Director, 440 Megatonnes

RESOURCES

• Database | Early Estimate of National Emissions 2025
• Insight | Early estimate finds that Canada's emissions increased in 2025 as clean electrification lagged
• Insight | Canada is now more than 20 years behind its 2030 target, with net zero nowhere in sight

About the Canadian Climate Institute
The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada's leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada's net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.
climateinstitute.ca

SOURCE Canadian Climate Institute